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Posted - 08/15/2020 : 17:27:28 We share a good hobby, this diecast site, and I'm glad to know you. We can move on from this other stuff.
Posted - 08/15/2020 : 10:49:24 Bill, I have nothing else to say, if there is anything else healthcare-wise I may be able to clarify in your future research please let me know.
Posted - 08/15/2020 : 06:49:26 Interpretation and guessing....is the foundation of the misinformation in all of this - and those 2 things have put much of the public in fear, while just as many ignore the guidelines because they saw the results of following them did not end the sickness. You don't make much of an argument in support of better communication. Yes, everyone needs to make up their own minds based on the factors you listed, but that does not say it's ok to talk about guesses (educated or not) to people who do not know they are guesses. Experts must speak to their audience better, I will not back away from that. The public must know what are guesses and what are facts. Fauci is not consistent in how he talks about things to the public, sometimes qualifying his statements to give him room to maneuver while at other times being blunt. I can see it, and I can tell when he does it because I have some grasp now of what's happening.
I've put in time and study to uncover how far off these expert-recommended prevention measures have been. Most people do not realize those errors, and I think that might have something to do with why we have not gotten this thing under control yet. One factor especially troubles me, and that is the finding that a 14-day quarantine is not long enough to prevent spreading the virus, and yet the experts have not changed the 14-day guideline. And a 2nd possible factor, airborne transmission is not getting enough recognition as a possible reason the other things haven't worked. People may need to be cleaning air and climate-control distribution systems, but nothing much is being said about it.
I qualified my cost/patient remark before putting it out there, Chav, it was only a response to what you said previously anyway, and I have been very clear that I am not callous about the individual sufferings, including bringing in my own family experiences with the Spanish flu, and my recent 5-week illness that may have been Covid. You did not separate the two points, on cost and empathy, and in tying them together you miss the point, which was that you yourself were using cost as a justification for keeping the public out of hospitals....not me.
[also your example of "shooting patients who need ventilators", I know you said it in sarcasm, but that would not reduce cost (just the opposite happens but I won't go into details)]
No matter how tough it looks from the inside of a hospital environment, the reality outside it is this thing is rare. None of this long discussion has changed that basic fact. Something like 20% who are exposed develop symptoms (per a controlled Korean study), and your own 10% figure being the number who have serious illness with it, appears to result in only 2% of population that likely will die, so the rest either get sick and recover or don't even get infected. I've been calling the mortality rate 3% conservatively based on Bing data collected from US hospitals, and 97% who need to get back to the economy. We can't expect perfection before we allow people to pursue their livelihoods and provide for their families. I'm not saying I ignore the pain and suffering, I am saying we have to accept some. We can't operate businesses and factories at anything near full capacity if we prioritize social distancing and masks over basic cleanliness and effective pre-screening before people can come into the daily work environment. It was thought that masks and plexiglas would take the place of those things, but it didn't. And either way, flattening the curve or herd immunity, about the same number of people will die. So all these restrictions if left in place will have caused more pain, of a different type including hunger, to a larger segment of our people. I don't want that, and don't apologize for my position given the facts as I now have them. Give me more facts, I can adjust my mindset. We need our economy back, now!
But this situation is so analogous to war, where some people want to sit back and allow others to do the fighting. I'm not one to sit on the sidelines.... Fauci's policies are too defensive, and if not stopped we will be in an economic calamity the likes of which will make the Great Depression seem like a minor blip.
Europe is looking at the US, hoping we don't drag our feet too long. Business experts over there see mass bankruptcy coming if we don't get our US economy in recovery soon and quickly. We've only seen a few bankruptcies because of Covid so far, companies that were weak coming into this, but we're on the verge of many more.
Posted - 08/15/2020 : 00:18:51 Two channels of communications? No, there are different ways of interpretation. We have access to the same information but process it differently based on prejudice, political and professional bias, prior knowledge and experience.
IMHO, you are wrong about Dr.Fauci, you don't trust him, what is the chance you are going to trust me who trusts him? Dr. Fauci has been very consistent in telling the truth for this crisis. "bureaucrat all his life, insulated from people", he has the best people skills from all the "coronavirus task force". I have not studied his biography to argue how much bureaucrat he is, but he has dedicated his life to science and medicine and what he is doing at his age deserves only respect. "Celebrity"? ... yes, nothing wrong with that. He is beating Trump in his own game, becoming a "celebrity". His "celebrity" status is so far his best defense of being still on the job. Masks in the current situation is no-brained for me, so I won't argue further about this.
"but if you have a million patients instead of 100,000 then your cost/patient should be going down drastically". OMG, Bill, these are not an iphones, this are human lifes ... maybe you will be right if you start shooting every patient who needs a ventilator to reduce cost. See, this is why this conversation is so unproductive for me, because you don't trust me in my field of expertise. I started replying to this thread only to give different perspective to this crisis. I see the tragedy of these people and their families every day I go to work. I would recommend actually watching some of these patient's stories on CNN, they are true stories ... I respect your perspective of the economic pain in your community but unfortunately the solution is not letting this virus unleashed, this is the time when the politicians have to step in ... Dr.Fauci is not the problem in the poor handling of this crisis.
Posted - 08/14/2020 : 00:31:45 lol....no need! if you reply....I might be feel a need to compose another one in response!
Sixth straight night on! .... you need to get some Mountain Dew to stay alert!
I have a John Wayne movie queued up, The Alamo. I'd rather watch it than debate further!
Posted - 08/13/2020 : 23:30:30 Doing my 6th night shift, busy shift, will reply later ...
Posted - 08/13/2020 : 09:49:06 I understand scientific study.... I was a number cruncher, but I worked in engineering for 21 years of my career at Ford. What I'm trying to communicate (not very well I guess) is that there are two channels here that need to be handled differently. One: within the medical community (to hospitals, doctors and researchers). Two: the other is to the general public.
What he is saying is alright for your ears. But he doesn't have one ounce of common sense when it comes to communicating with the rest of us. He has been a bureaucrat all his life, insulated from people I think. Experts are assumed to know, not guess.....by people who do not understand professional study. If he had just said we don't know what we don't know, that would be the best way to not under or over promise to the general public. That's not what I call being political, I call that being honest. And "never abandon" means just that to the same people. It spreads fear on one hand, and animosity on the other....because there is a large group of people on both sides of this thing, particularly over the masks.
I also understand costs and financials. They are not linear. Hate to state it this way because it may be interpreted as callous, but if you have a million patients instead of 100,000 then your cost/patient should be going down drastically. However, I don't look at this as a cost of treatment thing, I'm concerned about the livelihoods of the 97% who don't get the virus. Fauci is only concerned about the 3%. It's oil and water. I feel we need someone in his chair who considers the entire 100% spectrum. And someone who knows when to remain quiet until the right time.
As a coach, I couldn't be constantly criticizing players, I may have wanted to with certain teams, but I had to pick the right moments. You lose them, if you feel a need to be talking all the time. Fauci is being put in front of microphones now all the time and thinks he needs to say something every time. He might even have some celebrity syndrome, with so much media around him. A few "no comment"s would be nice sometimes, imo.
I wondered why you were here all the time too! My body clock got turned all around after I retired, then stopped coaching too, and I no longer get up to an alarm! Now, I sleep a few hours when I need it.... do my chores and then spend the rest of my waking hours looking at Covid stories (joke!).
Posted - 08/13/2020 : 09:19:26 Bill, I don’t understand why is hard to understand that any other infectious diseases expert will be telling us the same thing until the vaccine is out there and data is collected. Nobody can predict how successful a vaccine could be. This is medicine, there is no calculation for this. Coronaviruses are notoriously difficult to treat with vaccines. However several new approaches are being employed in development of a novel vaccine. What you want to hear, cannot come from a respected scientist, but can come from a politician. Biden will follow the science experts, Trump is your man to implement the natural selection strategy, which may be also scientific but cruel and outdated science. The medical community will not support such approach because we are wired in different way and we have to deal with the consequences of higher morbidity and mortality. Have you calculated the cost of medical management of 100K or 500K or 1M ICU patients? The cost of a single Covid patient care can easily balloon to 100 thousand dollars per month. And many of them will spent more than 1 month in ICU. Have considered that even with natural infections there may be Covid reinfections and people can get sick over and over again. How about mutations? Coronaviruses are here to stay, how about if next year we have COVID-21 that kills 5% and kills kids. Now is the time to develop vaccine technologies and antivirals. The problem is extremely complex, and it is not going to be solved by people who have no expertise in multiple medical fields. If Trump wins in November, he will replace Dr. Fauci with a loyalist who will be telling you exactly what you want to hear. I am not looking forward for that future.
I worked last 5 nights, what’s your excuse not to sleep?
Posted - 08/13/2020 : 07:35:00 These quotes and previous statements (above) came directly from an independent source, not any of the networks.
never abandon = forever 70-75% effective = 25-30% will still get Covid (even if we get the vaccine and if it is ever available; that's not good)
fairly clear to most of us what his statement is saying, not a difficult analysis
if Fauci means something else, he should say something else, not equivocate; the 70-75% effectiveness figure is yet another guess he tosses out; as I've said, I think he has a 10-year agenda and we need someone with a better plan
but yes, we have beaten this to death now.... unless there is new news, I'd like to give it a rest
Posted - 08/13/2020 : 04:34:13 I disagree with your epidemiology analysis but no matter what I say will not change your opinion a bit, hence it is not worth the effort.
Posted - 08/13/2020 : 01:48:22 Just great.... the latest Fauci quotes! August 12, 2020
"The chances of it [a vaccine] being 98% are not great. Which means you must never abandon the public-health approach."
To me, that means he expects: Masks forever!
Fauci has said he was hopeful that a coronavirus vaccine could be developed by early 2021, but has previously said it’s unlikely that a vaccine will deliver 100% immunity; he said the best realistic outcome, based on other vaccines, would be 70% to 75% effective.
To me, that means: If you think a vaccine is the answer and after that we're in the clear...... think again!
People we are in a fight for freedom here, it's not just about a short-term health scare. We need someone other than Fauci as the top adviser, someone with a wider viewpoint and who won't spread fear, after the election.
Voting and knowing issues is very important right now, but yes, I'd like to get back to cars.
Posted - 08/13/2020 : 01:35:10 Thanks for the advice Bill. Frank, good talking to you too. This conversation took wrong turn into politics, and I recognize my responsibility in that regard. It is probably time to end it. Let's talk cars next. How about Joe Biden's '67 C2? ... Just kidding
Posted - 08/12/2020 : 22:06:12 One thing I've learned in the past three or four years, Chav. An old dog learning a new trick analogy perhaps that helps me, and it might be of benefit to you and others. Stop watching the "channels"!
If there is one reason and only one allowed, biased media is the single biggest reason we as a country are now so divided. It tops the list. Facts don't matter. Our "free press" is not averse to lying. They sound like pre-schoolers, to me, who only want the approval of their "clique". I wonder how they get their job! Rhetorical question; I already know how.
Watch the actual news briefings yourself, unfiltered, not the summaries and stories of the newscasters afterward. Ignore those. I really wish the White House would put out full written explanations before the briefings for people to read. Then stop taking questions from reporters afterward, who then twist things. Controls the message better that way. You will not be so much misled, if you invest your own time to get the unfiltered truth.
In the past couple days, "Hillary" and "Pelosi-Schumer" (I call the latter one person, oftentimes, since those two never have an independent thought, and Schumer can only read his "thoughts" from a paper looking down at his hands anyway), my Democratic leaders have come out saying Trump is dead set on ending Social Security/Medicare. What I saw was only a short-term plan to keep money in the economy and in people's pocket rather than have the government hold it until you file your taxes next year. But unfortunately, I have not seen all the unfiltered Trump video yet (hope it exists). I don't really agree with Trump deferring the payroll taxes, but that doesn't mean he is doing it to kill off those programs. And in truth, he doesn't have the power anyway, we elect Congress to make those laws. Your vote on Congressional offices will be more important on this issue, not the vote for President. But the media is making it all about Trump. Stay away from their bias.
Today, one of our local and few remaining large-employment manufacturing plants told all its workers to sign up for unemployment. They had been short-shifting, but now they cannot even do that. Spokesperson said they have no idea when they will be able to, or even if, they will re-open. So in this vicinity, our recession of 2019 is on the verge of deeper harm to people. This counts to me far more than the 3%, sorry to say. We've got to re-open in full. Then dial back in spots, where needed, but not entire States.
CNN and others have no real desire to report on this underlying employment weakness in their headlines, until they have seen a change in the White House. Much of the higher employment figures lately in the news are due to highway construction projects long overdue, that are only temporary. Then what? Some restaurant hiring that happened has already been reversed by renewal and in many cases increased public gathering restrictions put into place due to Covid. Factories are closing, or running at drastically reduced production, to avoid legal risks. The government, already too far in debt, is borrowing massively to pay out relief to businesses and individuals. Inflation is going to eat us fixed-incomers alive, because there is very little real income in the system to tax. But the priorities of the media ignore all of that right now. We need to ignore them!
Posted - 08/12/2020 : 11:55:15 Yes, I did read you comment about shorting the market wrong. Thanks for clearing that up.
Glad to hear that you and your wife are on the same page. Marriage is a series of compromises which is difficult enough. There would be nothing worse than living with a person who has emphatic, diametrically opposed views of the same subject. Notably politics.
Ugh, I shudder at the thought.
quote:Originally posted by Chav
Frank, we are obviously watching different news channels, and the history of events in my mind is very different. Yes, I made a political statements because of reasons i mentioned above, which is pointless to repeat. I didn’t say I shorted the pharma, I said I shorted the market. I am also a risk taker and I made a mistake. Since my wife is fully invested on the long side, I made risk management bet for the short side largely because I was biased by the severity of the crisis. Speaking about the Covid and politics however, my wife and I are on the same page and that keeps the union strong. She is a smart woman, pediatric pulmonologist and researcher, if I ask her to read this discussion, she will ask me “why are you wasting your time?”.
Posted - 08/12/2020 : 09:43:01 Frank, we are obviously watching different news channels, and the history of events in my mind is very different. Yes, I made a political statements because of reasons i mentioned above, which is pointless to repeat. I didn’t say I shorted the pharma, I said I shorted the market. I am also a risk taker and I made a mistake. Since my wife is fully invested on the long side, I made risk management bet for the short side largely because I was biased by the severity of the crisis. Speaking about the Covid and politics however, my wife and I are on the same page and that keeps the union strong. She is a smart woman, pediatric pulmonologist and researcher, if I ask her to read this discussion, she will ask me “why are you wasting your time?”.
Posted - 08/12/2020 : 09:09:53 Chav, when this string began I was impressed by the way both sides of the virus argument was presented by yourself and by Bill. However, as it continues another side is coming out of you that wasn't there in the beginning. More and more it appears that you are politically motivated, as is much of the country right now - not so curiously since the elections are drawing near.
You seem to be aware of many facts and figures within your own health community, but I have my doubts about the knowledge you rely on for your assessment of the government's (read "Trump's) handling of the country.
In the beginning of the virus pandemic the Dems were totally against the closing of the borders. U.S. companies, at Trump's urging, started producing new ventilators and refurbishing/converting others to the point where New York enjoyed a surplus of them and hoarded them in the name of taking precautions for the future when other states could have used them.
Trump is following a cautious path to reopen the states gradually and is totally against mass shut-in compliance. He has taken risks in an attempt to balance the economy with the effects of the virus - pretty difficult to get totally right as there are no certainties. That being said - There are plenty of armchair quarterbacks these days whose vision is 20/20 and who keep changing their solutions to stay that way.
Trying to figure out why you shorted Pharma stock.
Posted - 08/12/2020 : 07:42:01 I am more interested in the on-going livelihood that provides for the families of the 97% than the 3%! And that's why we are so far apart. I view this like it's a war, now. We have to be more aggressive and fight back, don't be overrun playing only defense. Overwhelm it where it is weakest, if you will.
Don't get me wrong, I'm glad you are driven to knock this thing out your way. I wouldn't want my own doctor not caring if I survive or not.
But I'm older, and I have more history to base my thinking on. In the flu epidemic a century ago, a branch of my ancestry lost 5 siblings under the age of 10 (they were a large family, three children survived). So it isn't that I'm callous, I heard sad stories about it many times. Those three survivors lived long lives afterward. They moved on from it, had families of their own, just as we will have to today and into the future I think. That's the bigger picture I see right now, when I say we can't wait for cures that may never come.
I can't worry too much about the people who wish to live their life in fear, hiding even after told they don't need to. That mentality doesn't move us forward. So they fall behind if they don't wish to participate with the herd.
But when, eventually, the 97% people realize the 6-foot social distancing, the varying effectiveness of masks, the 14-day quarantine that was too short, and all the plexiglas and fastidious cleaning wasn't really the answer.... there will be a backlash. They will ask hard questions why we were told we had to sacrifice as an experiment. That's what I see coming, when the dust clears.
Yes, that link on airborne transmission is about the study I believe I read a week or more ago. As I said previously I disbelieve the likelihood that an infected person can transmit the virus to 200 people in a room who never got within 6 feet of that infected person. It has got to be airborne, and in recirculated air throughout the room. And small droplets are more likely to pass around or through normal masks in the air we breathe.
The comment in the story about ultra-violet light in hospital air filtration systems intrigues me. Does it work against virus? Probably not, but still interesting.
Lol, I was trying to back off this topic, but you got me going one more time!
Posted - 08/12/2020 : 03:10:56 Bill, I view this as a healthcare crisis. For me preserving life is much more important than preserving the economy. Most medical experts have similar goals. The medical experts are not stock market strategists to tell the market participants what news has legs. I don't understand why you are even talking about stocks here.
When there are no facts and data yet, we extrapolate conclusions from prior knowledge and experience (I called it "educated guess", you called it "loose opinion"), it is not perfect but it is better than following gut-feelings. Sorry, I don't understand what you mean by "I think you still misunderstand my point about knowing the facts first".
If this crisis was handled like NY did + ramped testing capacity nationwide, US would be opening right now with ability to mass test and trace focuses of virus resurgence. That's why medical experts are saying that control of the virus is the pathway to getting the economy on track. What do we have? A mess. So ideas like "herd immunity" and "poor advice from the experts" are floating around when the truth is incompetent governing (sorry Frank).
The question is what to do now? I don't know. We should embrace for painful long recovery. Let me tell you, why the herd immunity will never work practically, because not 100% of the population wants to participate. There is a large group of people who are scared and listening to the medical experts. They will continue to wear masks and participate in social distancing, and the more tragedy is out there, the more scared people will be. The second unknown is how long the natural immunity lasts, so far the opinion is that it lasts only for several months. Massive vaccination is the way out of this mess, and the way to build herd immunity is through a vaccine, however there is a big "but" ... if the vaccine works. Dying from COVID, or even spending a day in the ICU, is not worth the risk even for "risk takers". As I said before one has to see it to believe it. The US will overcome the economic downturn, no question about it. I'm still an optimist that an year from now the covid situation will be much better.
Just saw your latest redaction. We did hide to solve the problem, not to avoid it. It only partially worked because is was not done right but bought us time to build capacities and understand the problem. Now things are opening, and we can at least partially return to our lives with the limitations the virus is imposing. Wearing masks is a small price to pay for restoring our liberties, moreover it will be for limited time. Communities with low spread of the virus, don't even need to wear masks if they have rapid testing and reliable tracing. My sister was recently in Austria, they don't wear masks ...
Posted - 08/12/2020 : 01:44:56 We went round and round, Chav. I still have my view, you have yours. No problem with that, IMO.
But as an overview..... we need to get past this much faster than I think the medical experts want it to.
I am watching businesses close, or drastically shorten hours because people fear going out or working with others.
(Strangely, they still go out for recreation, but not into stores. Riding ATVs, motorcycles, 4WD off-roading, a few of my neighbors in their back yard target shooting at all hours, that type stuff is taking the place of going to work here)
Supply of manufactured goods is visibly drying up. More of those retail businesses will close soon, too....if you have nothing to sell you close up!
We had a power outage here yesterday. A basic service, some citizens need power for medical equipment in their home. It took 4 hours to get it back even though it was a simple repair, because the power company has laid off repair crews, so there were not enough available to get to our area.
I'm more of a risk taker I suppose, but if we let this drag on....we are in for a generation of pain.
My parents and grandparents lived through the Great Depression. They told me stories years ago that I still recall. The situation at the beginning of that was much the same as I'm seeing right now. Many people still had money, but there was nothing to buy. Other people had lost just about everything... homeless. No one thought it would last, but it did.
I think we have good cause to be concerned if we don't speed up this process soon. We can't keep hiding to avoid it.
End of my thoughts.
Posted - 08/12/2020 : 01:30:08 I think you still misunderstand my point about knowing the facts first.
I'm talking about what gets released to the public, and that should be very well defined facts, not loose opinion.
Within the medical chain, private secure communication can be happening in the meantime.
Posted - 08/12/2020 : 01:22:35 I wasn't intending to mean I wanted the drugs fast tracked.... I meant that the response of medical experts should have been more immediate so that people didn't get the wrong idea.
There was a long enough gap, I spoke with people later the same day about one of the stories, and it wasn't refuted until the following day. In the meantime, Trump also repeated it.... and some people sold stock for a big gain.
Posted - 08/12/2020 : 00:04:04
quote:Originally posted by Frank Kocour
Well, I spoke too soon.
It all made sense until this.
quote:Originally posted by Chav
My firm opinion is that US government mismanaged the crisis and continues to do so, which caused and causing unnecessary deaths. I have nothing else to say on the topic.
Frank, you were right ... I had a lot more to say on the topic
Posted - 08/11/2020 : 23:15:52 I agree, there was a lot of confusion and still there are many unknowns. There was huge confusion introduced by politicians and particularly the president. All medical experts who were related to the government, including Dr.Fauci, had to soften their language and be politically correct, which generated lots of mixed messages. On the other hand the progressive media had bias towards sounding a loud alarm, which I personally believe was the right thing to do because it greatly helped with the awareness of the situation. Few days ago I said that the government missed the opportunity to act early and consistently and Frank said my statement made no sense. Here is what I mean, Trump lost an enormous opportunity to be the "hero" in this crisis, all he had to say (besides acting quicker) was: "yes, it is a bad crisis, we will get through this together with the help of the best scientists in the world", then embrace the crisis, ramp up the industry to produce testing equipment and medical equipment, support the people so they can stay home, open the country more gradually, lead by example by wearing mask, keep the course steady ... we would've been far far ahead. The resurge in FL and TX could have been avoided to a large degree. MI was #3 state by number of cases when the crisis started, now MI is recovering much better, masks are widely accepted and people are compliant with the rules, at least in southeast MI where I live.
Bellow are my comments, with the disclaimer that I am biased because I interpreted all info through my professional experience, I worked all the time and did not loose income, and I had the advantage of discussing directly with infections disease specialists and hospital administrators who were developing hospital policies based on CDC guidelines and latest research.
quote:Originally posted by Skylark At the beginning it was broadly said that the virus only affected seniors, not healthy younger people. That was not immediately refuted. And in fact I don't believe much of anything was said before colleges went on spring break, so students and parents mostly thought they were not at risk if they traveled - right up to the day of departure. Much too late coming. And it was mostly politicians making the restrictions at that point, vaguely referring to medical expert "opinions". It all sounded like political cover to me.
Yes, it was said that the seniors have the worst outcomes, not that it did not affect younger people, but the focus was on seniors. It was very evident for us from the very beginning that morbidly obese younger people (50+) with diabetes and hypertension are also very high risk category. Then the African American people were hit really bad, 70-80% of our ICU pts were African American, including healthy people. Also we had few white men in their 20's who barely made it, so even in March-April was clear that young people are not immune.
quote:Originally posted by Skylark Hospitals offloaded Covid patients into nursing homes. That should have been prevented by experts.
I don't have an impression that this was an issue. The nursing home crisis came from the nursing homes themselves, they were coronavirus incubators, but I am not sure they were seeded from the hospitals. Everybody sent from a hospital with COVID status would have been known and hence precautions would be followed.
quote:Originally posted by Skylark A number of times, there have been announcements that a medicine or vaccine has promise, or is effective against Covid, that we only need to fast track approval to use it, when in fact nothing is even close. Trump repeated some of those statements. Companies made a fast buck on the stock market, before any statements came from the experts to refute claims.
However wants fast track vaccines should buy a ticket to Russia. Liability of bad vaccine is too high in US. 12 months to market will be an exceptional speed, and I would wait even longer to get it myself, unless the hospital forces me. The current stock market doesn't make any sense to me anyway, I am loosing money cause I shorted it...
quote:Originally posted by Skylark To me it is splitting hairs whether the medicine is only effective against narrow symptoms of the disease or against the full disease. The general public assumes the latter, when it is not immediately and loudly refuted or explained.
There is no treatment for COVID-19 and no expert has said there is. The current management is supportive, meaning, the doctors sustain the life of the patient until the patient's immune system overcomes the infection. There are 3 therapies that improve survival: remdesivir (new antiviral), dexamethasone (old, blocks inflammatory response), convalescent plasma (antibodies to covid from a recovered donor).
quote:Originally posted by Skylark No admission that people who wear masks can still get Covid; it would not fit the narrative, so goes unsaid. Many people right to this moment think if they wear a mask, they are totally safe. You and I know better, Chav. But so many people are now believing they can go out anywhere any time, wearing a mask, and they won't get the virus. They aren't going to read the small print. They went out, a few rioters can even be seen wearing masks (but not social distancing), and therefore cases spiked anyway. I've seen no data breaking down infection cases between mask-wearers and non-wearers. Only blanket statements to wear them, which generates suspicions in my mind. Nothing is that clean-cut.
Masks are not 100% protective, but reduce the spread of the virus significantly to the point that we can achieve control. Wearing a mask by everybody helps drive down the number of infections on population level. Wearing a mask properly along with social distancing, and washing hands helps avoiding the virus on individual level. It is always easier to have KISS messages (the fine print is for the more intelligent people): wear a mask! Such simple message, may not protect everybody, but as a whole the society will do better.
quote:Originally posted by Skylark The 14-day quarantine..... that, turns out, was a guess, and still no general notice is being given that symptoms are showing up late in that span for some people and that the virus can be spread after the 14 day period.
14-day quarantine is anther simplified (for easy following) policy. Long enough for majority of the patients to stop spreading the virus, not too long to cause unnecessary delay of getting people back to their life.
quote:Originally posted by Skylark I don't have a ready-made list of these things, but if I sat here long enough, I know I could remember more than this. However one thing I do want to say is the WHO is not a US entity, and it appeared they were the creators of much confusion around the world. US experts allowed them to do it, without refuting it, before our government officials repeated those things. Again I didn't prepare a list, but my mental scorecard tilts toward strong doubts about what the experts are/were saying.
Again, nobody knew exactly what to do, it is a novel virus, science needs time for observation and analyzing data. It took centuries for the people to realize that microorganisms cause variety of disease. It takes months now to characterize the behavior of novel virus, we have never been better than we are now. We should take everything in perspective.
quote:Originally posted by Skylark I don't really need comments back about this, I've been reading about all of it, from many sources already.
It lets me look trough your point of view and understand how non medical people see these issues.
quote:Originally posted by Skylark My point is, after seeing your statement about educated guesses, Chav, the experts should only communicate within their own community before they go public with things that have not been proved and that may change. People may only hear about the first announcement, and not the follow-up. That creates misinformation.
Again, lack of any guidance is worse than let's say 70% accurate guidance. Here is where an influencer (such as the president) would play a huge role. Simple guidance that everyone follows + detailed guidelines for businesses, hospitals and schools. A national strategy is necessary because we cannot control the borders between states. Passing all responsibilities to the states is a recipe for prolonged and painful recovery. See, this is why China did well, because they can force their people to comply. I am not saying that US should be China, but the president had such an unique opportunity to unite the nation ... the democrats were already compliant with the restrictions the virus came with, if he only brought the republicans on board ... oh, well. He will have hell of a hard time in November...
quote:Originally posted by Skylark As a coach for many years, I have lived a life where it is important not to over-promise and then risk not being able to deliver on that promise. You lose respect if you do it.
Exactly. But I don't think the experts overpromised, on the other hand the government is overpromising every day.
quote:Originally posted by Skylark I expect the medical experts to be even more observant of the parameters and promises they set before they really know all the facts.
Disagree, in this crisis experts cannot wait months to observe and then come up with strategy. We still don't know all facts. That's why there is huge debate about the schools opening.
Finally, you can throw away used masks in the garbage, the virus dies in few days (slower of faster depending on the surface and the environment), moreover I believe the contact transmission is overrated. Even if you touch someone else's mask, just wash your hands with soap and water.
Posted - 08/11/2020 : 01:55:18 One more thing before I go to sleep.... regarding the masks.
This is what happens in the real world, not in a hospital environment, but I think it will be of interest to you Chav, and maybe others, about unintended consequences.
I can report as a witness three separate instances in the past week of individuals discarding their used mask on the ground in public places.
It so happens that two instances were on a fast food parking lot near me, the other on the road in front of my home.
I don't know what the fast food place does when that happens. I did report it back to them.
But for me, in front of my home, I'm asking myself what should I do here?
I thought about calling the local ambulance/medical emergency service. Then I thought, is there a haz-mat company for this?
I can't just pick it up.... so I found a small stick nearby and hooked it on the end. Now what?
I ended up tossing it in the receptacle for our local trash removal service. Now I'm thinking, what do all these people do with their used masks? Like me, they're probably tossing them in their trash at home.
So, unlike the hospital environment where masks go into a more appropriate disposal channel, these masks end up in the landfills. Now how is that protecting our people from disease?
It's easy to make broad directions about health and safety, but the reality of results may be largely different than intended. That's my takeaway from these three occurrences. I now have one more reason to discredit the use of masks.
Posted - 08/11/2020 : 01:20:02 At the beginning it was broadly said that the virus only affected seniors, not healthy younger people. That was not immediately refuted. And in fact I don't believe much of anything was said before colleges went on spring break, so students and parents mostly thought they were not at risk if they traveled - right up to the day of departure. Much too late coming. And it was mostly politicians making the restrictions at that point, vaguely referring to medical expert "opinions". It all sounded like political cover to me.
Hospitals offloaded Covid patients into nursing homes. That should have been prevented by experts.
A number of times, there have been announcements that a medicine or vaccine has promise, or is effective against Covid, that we only need to fast track approval to use it, when in fact nothing is even close. Trump repeated some of those statements. Companies made a fast buck on the stock market, before any statements came from the experts to refute claims.
To me it is splitting hairs whether the medicine is only effective against narrow symptoms of the disease or against the full disease. The general public assumes the latter, when it is not immediately and loudly refuted or explained.
No admission that people who wear masks can still get Covid; it would not fit the narrative, so goes unsaid. Many people right to this moment think if they wear a mask, they are totally safe. You and I know better, Chav. But so many people are now believing they can go out anywhere any time, wearing a mask, and they won't get the virus. They aren't going to read the small print. They went out, a few rioters can even be seen wearing masks (but not social distancing), and therefore cases spiked anyway. I've seen no data breaking down infection cases between mask-wearers and non-wearers. Only blanket statements to wear them, which generates suspicions in my mind. Nothing is that clean-cut.
The 14-day quarantine..... that, turns out, was a guess, and still no general notice is being given that symptoms are showing up late in that span for some people and that the virus can be spread after the 14 day period.
I don't have a ready-made list of these things, but if I sat here long enough, I know I could remember more than this. However one thing I do want to say is the WHO is not a US entity, and it appeared they were the creators of much confusion around the world. US experts allowed them to do it, without refuting it, before our government officials repeated those things. Again I didn't prepare a list, but my mental scorecard tilts toward strong doubts about what the experts are/were saying.
I don't really need comments back about this, I've been reading about all of it, from many sources already.
My point is, after seeing your statement about educated guesses, Chav, the experts should only communicate within their own community before they go public with things that have not been proved and that may change. People may only hear about the first announcement, and not the follow-up. That creates misinformation.
As a coach for many years, I have lived a life where it is important not to over-promise and then risk not being able to deliver on that promise. You lose respect if you do it.
I expect the medical experts to be even more observant of the parameters and promises they set before they really know all the facts.