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Bob Nist

USA

Posted - 07/31/2020 :  16:52:06  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-IzlvgRxA8

Skylark

USA

Posted - 07/31/2020 :  23:33:22  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
This is an excellent history lesson, laid out in a way that many younger generation students and their parents would understand; those generations who did not face what a lot of us older generation have seen. And sadly many younger than us have not paid enough attention to these things in their history classes at schools. They all could use some perspective and re-education.

My only quibble is with the summation of the video. Personally, I fear the freedoms we've fought for are at grave risk, as politicians keep making power grabs to counter each other... at our expense. The judicial branch of government is failing us, therefore we must be more vigilant, and actively defend ourselves against politicians until we vote them out, while also pushing back against the socialists and the media who wish to undermine us from within by abolishing our border and our police. Sitting at home eating popcorn, as seen in the final scene of the video, will not get us out of this mess.

I know it's counter intuitive to many people, but we cannot defeat corona by hiding from it either. We need to develop antibodies and immunity, and that only happens with getting exposed to it, not by waiting for a vaccine - because that could take many years. Even the loudest alarmists have to admit the percentage of the population who contract the virus and die is very small. Our absolute numbers are large yes, but that's because we have a large population base compared to most other countries. Some in the media like to suggest we have not counted everyone who has the virus yet; if true, that would only mean the percentage who die is even smaller.

Spanish flu did not kill off humans, and it is no longer a threat to us because people back then faced up to it (knowingly or not). We didn't sit on the couch.

Edited by - Skylark on 08/01/2020 00:11:45
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Chav

USA

Posted - 08/09/2020 :  01:52:02  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Skylark

I know it's counter intuitive to many people, but we cannot defeat corona by hiding from it either. We need to develop antibodies and immunity, and that only happens with getting exposed to it, not by waiting for a vaccine - because that could take many years. Even the loudest alarmists have to admit the percentage of the population who contract the virus and die is very small. Our absolute numbers are large yes, but that's because we have a large population base compared to most other countries. Some in the media like to suggest we have not counted everyone who has the virus yet; if true, that would only mean the percentage who die is even smaller.


Bill, with all due respect, you can't be more wrong about COVID. Before I say anything further let me ask you if you have had any personal experience with COVID, someone died or suffered from it for long time?

Edited by - Chav on 08/09/2020 04:34:26
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Frank Kocour

USA

Posted - 08/09/2020 :  09:18:32  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I think it's the other way around. People who are admitted for anything these days (broken bones, other internal ailments, heart problems, are admitted as a covid 19 patient if they have any of the virus symptoms. Likewise if someone dies for any reason and covid 19 is found in their body the cause of death is attributed to the virus.

Not saying that the virus isn't real or dangerous - it is - but it's also being handily used as a political football to garner power.

quote:
Originally posted by Skylark

Some in the media like to suggest we have not counted everyone who has the virus yet; if true, that would only mean the percentage who die is even smaller.


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Skylark

USA

Posted - 08/09/2020 :  18:54:45  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Chav

Bill, with all due respect, you can't be more wrong about COVID. Before I say anything further let me ask you if you have had any personal experience with COVID, someone died or suffered from it for long time?



I will first say I hope you have not personally had such an experience, Chav.

I have followed this quite closely. I'm a number cruncher....that was my career. The numbers say this is not a death sentence if you get it. It can be, but it is rare. That is true also of normal flu btw, but we have more antibodies in our system to fight normal flu so the numbers are much lower.

Some people can be very sick with Covid, yes, and for a longer period of time than with a normal flu. But also, many people who have tested positive with this virus do not even get symptoms.

Tom Hanks and NY Governor Cuomo's brother, two highly visible positive-test cases, didn't seem to be very sick, to me. We watched Cuomo broadcast his illness on TV. He was able to do his weight-lifting or whatever exercises he did throughout his sickness. Jack Nicklaus said he had it, looked fine to me in his recent golf interviews.

The Governor of Ohio tested positive the other day, then tested again the next day and was negative. How can we even believe the test's accuracy?!

Death rate is staying in the 3% or a fraction higher range, depending on what you use as the denominator. I'm using deaths over confirmed cases.... 165K/5117K with latest USA figures I see. Deaths per capita is a minuscule .05% (point 0-5!) using 330 million as a population estimate. This is a panic created by power politics, taking advantage of fears. Frank is correct, many doctors are reporting they are being pressured to say Covid is the cause of a death, even if other causes are the real reason. It's hysteria we need to fear.

I don't deny the virus exists, never have. But I know of no one, outside what has been reported in the media, who has been diagnosed with this disease - in my circle of community or friends beyond - none. If it wasn't such a political hot potato and in our daily news, I doubt most of this country would even be aware of this virus.

Did you notice how fast the Governors all got in line to reinstate limits when Trump started saying masks are ok? You can bet that was driven by political polling, not science. The other political party was winning the battle of the media, and something had to be done to turn around the GOP boat or it would sink.

How convenient was it that the media was able to get a quote somewhere saying that all the rioting did not cause an increase in Covid? Oh yes, and all those choir boys were wearing masks as they riot and destroy property! Rubbish. It was widely reported in the press, so that says to rioters it's not dangerous to riot! But that's not science speaking, either. It's Democrat's politics and power.

Sad some people can be so easily deceived politically, but it's so true they are.

I have not been tested myself, but I was sick for about 5 weeks in early spring. I've never had a sickness last so long, but I got through it without seeing a doctor. It wasn't easy. Last week, I inquired about the antibody test with my doctor's office while discussing other matters, and will be making an appointment soon for a blood test (I want my insurance plan to approve it first).

It was hard on the lungs, a lot of coughing..... difficulty sleeping. I had to sit up in a chair at night, or the coughing was worse. Did I have it? I don't really know, but it could have been. I certainly was not around anyone sick with Covid before I got whatever it was, I'm absolutely sure of that. I had been keeping a very close circle of contacts, and they didn't get sick before or after. So all this mask and social distancing business I view with strong skepticism.

I know of one member here who had a similar experience with symptoms like mine. Both of us have recovered. I won't say who it was. But he is in one of the hot spot areas of the US, I am in a really cold spot area. How did we both get the same symptoms, so far apart at the same time? I don't travel. Neither did he, that I know of. Everything was in lockdown at that time, anyway.

The virus is in the air. No one single virus carrier can infect 200 people beyond 6 feet of them in a room otherwise. Examples like that have been reported many times by the news media with so little thought behind it. If you can breath, with or without a mask, you can get it simply by breathing. And the air we breathe goes around the mast, not just through it. But so many people would go into an even bigger panic if airborne transmission was reported widely, that social distancing doesn't protect you. There is a group of medical experts out there now finally saying this virus transmission is airborne, and I have been convinced they are on the right track.

With all the cleanliness protocols being put out by the medical experts, plexiglas screening everywhere, surface cleaning specified, I've not seen one that says clean air conditioners, furnaces, filters or ducts. A few media outlets have asked the question, but not much else. Air is recirculated in those systems. So can the virus.

We saw the virus data spike, then it seemed to be in decline, then it came back. Well, I can lay that data over the seasonal weather pattern and get a sense that our indoor climate control could be a source of infections from the air we breathe, not just at home but in the businesses we visit. The period of reduced infections corresponds with the period between when our furnaces were running full time and later when the thermostats began calling for the A/C to come on. During that calm the virus transmission declined. Sort of like the Legioneer's Disease from a few years ago, where A/C systems were found to be the source, only in this case an airborne virus, not bacteria found in moisture, is being recirculated.

Covid is here; it will not go away. To people who believe in masks, I say if you wish, then do it. But don't be surprised when one future day comes along and they get it anyway. They didn't develop antibodies to the virus. The percentages say you will be better off with some exposure, and let your body develop antibodies, just as we have done for things like Spanish flu since it ran through our population a century ago.

So far, only about 1.5% of our US population has tested positive for Covid, and only around 3% of that 1.5% subset has died from it. That's only 5 out of every 10,000 people. Even if cases double, that's still only 10 deaths per 10,000. So I'm comfortable saying it's rare. But listening to the media hysteria and certain politician's who promote it, we must shut down the whole world and hide from this. I don't buy into that, even if I didn't have it earlier and could get it in the future. Common sense prevailing obviously, I wouldn't walk into a room occupied by a group who all are sick.... but we only have one life to live, so we better enjoy it.

I've never had a flu shot, and rarely have I ever had flu in my adult life. I account for that by having been exposed to normal flu when I was younger.

I don't believe any vaccine will eradicate the virus either, only some of its symptoms. If the medical research community knows so much, why do we still have the common cold? We simply cannot wait for a vaccine that may take years to find, if it is ever found.

We need to wake up to a realization that to get out of this, we need our natural defense system to work on it. I don't want to lose any of my friends to the virus, and there will be casualties if people with high risk factors do not protect themselves, but over time the panic will pass. I really believe that. But I accept that not everyone may be so far along in their thinking as this. They need more people to say it first.


Edited by - Skylark on 08/10/2020 18:44:00
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Chav

USA

Posted - 08/09/2020 :  20:03:30  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Bill, I am dizzy after reading all this... I will say few things, hopefully they are clear enough underlining my position on this. You guys are smart bunch but you have to be careful who do you believe in this ocean of misinformation.

First, I make my leaving as a internal medicine hospital physician and I have taken care of COVID-19 ICU patients since COVID-19 arrived to US. COVID-19 is the nastiest bug possible, not deadly enough to kill everybody, hence very easy to spread, hard to detect,master of disguise and a random killer. I will leave you to crunch the numbers yourself, frankly it doesn't matter if it kills 2% or 3% or 5%, the morbidity is extremely high, probably 10% of people have a severe disease. 150K dead in US, 5M positive, you can argue that the infected people were much larger number than the tested positive... that still will cause more than a million of deaths in US if the virus continues to spread with the same speed and we rely on antibodies and herd immunity. Again, this is a random killer, we do not exactly know why same people die and some have no symptoms yes: race, age, gender, obesity and comorbidities play huge role, but not always we can point to contributing factors. That's why the best strategy is NOT to get sick. I saw 30 year old died within hours of getting admitted, I see people daily struggling for their life, I have called many families that their loved one didn't make it. And the truth is that this is largely preventable, at least it must be slowed down until there are more therapeutics and vaccine.

Herd immunity not a good idea for this virus. Every believer that the herd immunity is the way to go, has to accept several things: 1) Be ready to die or have a loved one die; be ready to loose your quality of live or be ready to take care of a disabled loved one; 2) Live with the though that by contracting the virus and spreading it to other people, you would kill some of them; 3) ultimately, loosing up to 2-3% of the nation; 4) Receive delayed care for any other condition because the hospitals are overwhelmed with COVID-19 patients ... Not a good idea. Unfortunately, until one sees the ugly face of this disease, he/she would never understand the impact of this crisis.

Overreporting deaths another myth. Here in Michigan, I call the medical examiner office with each COVID-19 death, they write the death certificate. If anything, the death toll is underestimated because people die at home too and they are not always tested for COVID-19. Do you guys think that the governors of FL or TX are overreporting deaths? Or you are saying that the doctors are doing this? This is nonsense.

Masks what is the problem with masks if masks didn't work there would have been an explosion of healthcare workers cases with COVID-19. In fact frontline healthcare workers have very low incidence of COVID-19. How do you guys think I protected myself and my family over the last several months? By meticulously wearing a mask.

Flattening the curve is extremely important, first to buy time for vaccine and therapeutics development, and second to protect the healthcare system capacity. If the disease morbidity overwhelms the hospitals capacity (beds, ventilators, physicians, nurses, respiratory therapists, supportive drugs), people start dying in larger numbers, simply because they cannot be reached on time. Every hospital has disaster management plan, if one is 70y/o and there is a 30 y/o competing for the same resource, who do you think is going to be prioritized?

Bill, I agree a vaccine is not going to eradicate COVID-19. Even if vaccine works, you need a close to 100% compliance, at least initially, to eradicate a disease. COVID-19 is here to stay for years to come, the bug is just too "smart". However a vaccine can make the disease much less deadly, and don't forget about the therapeutics, these are drugs to treat the virus once someone develops symptoms. There is no vaccine for "common cold", flu is different entity and we know the vaccine doesn't protect 100% anyway.

This got too long, will stop here.
Please avoid crowds, wear mask, wash your hands, watch the right channel, and be critical to what the president is saying about COVID-19.

Edited by - Chav on 08/09/2020 23:41:40
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Chav

USA

Posted - 08/09/2020 :  22:23:42  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Bill, rereading your post, see my initial post above.
These are direct comments from your notes above regarding issues I did not address.

COVID-19 is much deadlier than flu. Also morbidity is much much higher (patients are much sicker for way longer time, hence cost for the healthcare). Flu is lung disease, COVID is much more complex affecting variety of systems.

Yes, most celebrities did fine, they were younger and well fit ... still 150K people died.

Death rate is NOT 3%, it is higher, the death numbers are delayed at least 2-3 weeks if not longer, so you cannot calculate it yet. Also the virus mutates, and in general the direction of the virus evolution is to become less deadly but easier to spread. Hence mortality decreases overtime. Moreover now we know how to treat it better. Mortality was up to 5-7% at the beginning. Up to 10-12% for some developed countries. Trying to rationalize deaths of this magnitude is mind-blowing to me Joseph Stalin has said "One death is a tragedy, a million deaths a statistic", this is what the US handling of this crisis has become.

It is not correct that doctors are pressured to report more COVID-19 deaths, this is a ridiculous statement. As I said above, these are reportable deaths and there are several layers of review. A doctor like myself has absolutely no reason or incentive to over-report. The political pressure is probably directed to under-report in some areas, but I firmly believe in the integrity of the physicians in this country. I am offended by statements like this.

The protests are another theme, I would not touch here. However to estimate their impact on spreading COVID one can link the size of the protests in different cities to the spike in virus cases in the same areas.

I am not convinced the virus is airborne. I use only surgical mask in the hospital hallways, and have not contracted the virus, neither my colleagues. We use N95 mask only when examining patients with confirmed COVID-19. Again, a mask does not guarantee absolute protection, but slows the transmission substantially and the benefits of the reducing the virus spread in the population are unquestionable.

Edited by - Chav on 08/09/2020 23:51:24
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Chav

USA

Posted - 08/10/2020 :  02:50:01  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Bill, I keep rereading your post
here is another quote "We need to wake up to a realization that to get out of this, we need our natural defense system to work on it."
This is exactly what a vaccine does, it prepares your "natural defense system" to neutralize the virus. Vaccines are one of the best invention of humanity (second only to the cars).

Another quote: "I don't deny the virus exists, never have. But I know of no one, outside what has been reported in the media, who has been diagnosed with this disease - in my circle of community or friends beyond - none. If it wasn't such a political hot potato and in our daily news, I doubt most of this country would even be aware of this virus."
I don't know where you live, I guess in a suburb in the Midwest (I think we met briefly at the last Toledo toy show) but this virus arrived first in the airport hubs of the country (NY, LA, Seattle and Detroit) where it rapidly exploded. It spread fast in urban environment but never reached many regions. The whole reason of shutting down the country, was to flatten the curve and stop the spread to other parts of the country. Unfortunately the reopening was mismanaged and that caused the resurgence of the virus. Europe did much better. The president did a lot to undermine the credibility of the news channels, so many people don't trust the news.... I can tell you one thing: the bug is real and nasty, and it is coming everywhere. US lost the opportunity to control it in its infancy. Ultimately the future is bright, in 6-12 months we may be able to return to normalcy ...

Edited by - Chav on 08/10/2020 03:26:56
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Skylark

USA

Posted - 08/10/2020 :  06:21:03  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Chav, yes we did meet in Toledo, I recall. I was pretty tired that day, drove all night to get there because it was going to be the last one!

Your responses are measured, and generally not unfair. You have a different perspective being in hospitals so much. And I'm definitely sure you and other healthcare workers take many more precautions with cleanliness in your environment than the people outside of it do.

That probably accounts for more than masks in healthcare workers avoiding this virus, if you ask me.

I won't go into too much debate over all of this. Counter productive actually if I did. I've studied and observed much over the past 8 months or so. I don't speak off-the-cuff, it isn't my way. So what I say is already the result of accounting for all the varied opinions I read or hear, or I wouldn't say it. Others can have their own opinions, that's fine with me. The trouble is too many people have opinions who really do not study the situation first.

I personally went through what I suspect could be this sickness. I plan to confirm it soon, by blood test. All that you said about it, I've heard before, too. I know people die, and that it's a random killer in a way. (btw, I still don't understand how the initial positive/negative diagnostic testing can be valid, if the virus is mutating so fast while the test is static, and I did read that the virus was mutating in late spring, but the experts were not telling the doctors that, for some unknown reason.)

Although I don't agree with some of the numbers you quote, I've kept pretty close watch over those numbers all along and they've been fairly consistent. Other places, like Italy had high numbers like that. But our country's data was consistent once the process and rules for reporting became consistent. There were some problems with that, at first, I know. My numbers come from a Bing search for Covid data, if that matters. It's constantly being updated, round the clock.

I've seen the criticism of herd immunity. It's ugly to think of, I know. But it worked a century ago, and I don't see that we've really advanced all that much in stopping viruses since then, only in handling the symptoms, therapeutics you called it. We can't wait a decade or 5 years while 330 million people try to avoid this virus. People want to talk about a bad quality of life by taking this head-on, well try that with everybody destitute for a generation because our world economy is stalled out, with little chance of restarting soon because we've allowed this to drag out on the hope of a cure. If flattening the curve results in 200K deaths per year and it takes 5 years for a vaccine, that's a million deaths right there. Herd immunity would be the same fatalities over less time. Hospitals are already delaying surgeries for many people, even with flattening the curve. So I cannot see that overwhelming the system would be all that much different, and we can move on from this much quicker.

I retired from the Detroit region. I still have a few friends in the area. Even there, no one I know has knowledge of anyone having Covid. In hospitals, no doubt it is what is seen most frequently now I suppose, but out here in the general public, we really don't have that observation. My county and most of the surrounding counties here report 50 cases or less, and 0-2 fatalities, about 3% mortality I estimate. The largest area county by population around here reports 600 cases and 10 deaths, 1.7% mortality. And they have three universities that have driven up their cases, students brought it back from Spring Break vacations.

Flattening the curve was doomed from the start.... not by its management in the US vis-a-vis the Europeans or elsewhere, but by the fact we have a migrating workforce year-round in our country. Farming and fruit/vegetable distribution in our food chain results in much movement of people from place to place.... that type movement isn't seen as much in Europe, according to some people I chat with over there. Even so, much of Europe is pulling back again, because literally you can walk or drive across borders there unchecked. Stay off the trains and airplanes, you can go anywhere in Europe pretty much, with no questions asked. That's not good. People don't travel very far, it's very expensive, but they are being put into another shutdown as a pre-caution. I do support the grounding of all airplanes to reduce non-essential travel, but there is too much money in that lobby to ever make it happen. Not just in the US, but overseas too.

I don't doubt your personal integrity whatsoever, Chav, and if you resist the pressure I've heard from other doctors regarding cause-of-death, I commend you highly. But the pressure exists in many places. There are too many overlapping symptoms sometimes, I'm told, so Covid goes into the data. For example, if a patient who has a long history of heart trouble enters the hospital with pneumonia, and is then found to be positive for Covid and subsequently dies from the pneumonia, is cause of death heart disease or Covid?

I'm not in the President's political party, but I think the news media has done enough to undermine their own credibility without Trump's help.

What dismays me more is how amateurish the CDC, WHO, and other panels of so-called medical experts have appeared in this whole thing. Ready-shoot-aim, if you ask me!

Trump made his mistake in following along with those expert's statements about symptoms, demographics, vaccines/quick cure medications/etc, then seeing them change those statements soon after he repeats them.

I am glad to see your forecast that things will get better in 6-12 months.

Fauci seems now to want to lay out a 10-year plan! Then go to work for Gates's Foundation, I skeptically say.


Edited by - Skylark on 08/10/2020 19:20:25
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Frank Kocour

USA

Posted - 08/10/2020 :  09:42:55  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
One of the best summations of both sides of the Covid 19 theories I've read. Congrats to both Chav and to Bill who wrote succintly without a lot of BS and made their points without accusations or the use of demeaning labels.

As I stated I do believe the Covid 19 is real and dangerous, but not a cause of human eradication. I think the virus was manufactured by the Chinese who lost control of it. Rather than bemoan it they quickly came to think of that as a serendipity and allowed it to run its course as a powerful control measure. My research more closely follows Bill's which leads me to similar conclusions. I do have a conspiracy theory in my head because there are plenty of non virtual reasons to tilt that way, IMO.

Chav, I wish that all medical professionals had your innate sense of honesty and dedication, but that just is not true. The Arizona VA is the home to one of the worst cases of hospital crimes and mismanagement in the entire U.S. and it was allowed to continue for many, many years. I"m not sure if it is yet corrected. After being misdiagnosed and personally experiencing the result of "Good Old Boy" mismanagementI bowed out of the system about six years ago and am afraid to re-enter it as a patient.

Hospitals are given more Medicare money for a patient who is diagnosed with Covid 19. Does the possibility (and incentive) for fraud exist?
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Chav

USA

Posted - 08/10/2020 :  10:03:19  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Bill, I was planning to just close this conversation because we are too far apart, but perhaps there are few other readers who can make their own conclusions, or perhaps you may change some of your positions ... For me there are two fundamentally disturbing statements in you view:
1)"But it worked a century ago, and I don't see that we've really advanced all that much in stopping viruses since then, only in handling the symptoms, therapeutics you called it."
and
2)"What dismays me more is how amateurish the CDC, WHO, and other panels of so-called medical experts have appeared in this whole thing. Ready-shoot-aim, if you ask me!"
I understand you spent months of research, however these statements makes me think that you are poorly informed.

The year is not 1918, in the last 100 years some viruses were eradicated, many are successfully treated with vaccines and most recently antivirals (therapeutics). Therapeutics are not symptom management drugs, they are disease altering drugs. If you ask me to give you examples, I can point you to the immunization calendar and then you could move to herpes, hepatitis, AIDS, ebola, influenza and COVID-19.

Yes, the CDC and WHO made mistakes, CDC is simply immobilized and defunded from this government. However, I can proudly say that US medicine is top notch and the "so-called medical experts" are the best in the world. In US it is practiced what's called "evidence based medicine", when there is no "evidence" the experts are guessing. Of course these are educated guesses and not always correct, the covid situation is fluid and things change rapidly. The alternative is to pop hydroxychloroquine and drink bleach. Also, the government medical experts are trying half say the truth, half please the president, I don't want their job.

If you change your mind on the effectiveness of virus diseases treatment and start trusting the medical expert, perhaps you can see why the herd immunity idea, although pragmatic, cannot be supported by the vast majority of scientists and healthcare providers. My firm opinion is that US government mismanaged the crisis and continues to do so, which caused and causing unnecessary deaths. I have nothing else to say on the topic.

Edited by - Chav on 08/10/2020 10:14:32
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Frank Kocour

USA

Posted - 08/10/2020 :  11:18:54  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Well, I spoke too soon.

It all made sense until this.

quote:
Originally posted by Chav

My firm opinion is that US government mismanaged the crisis and continues to do so, which caused and causing unnecessary deaths. I have nothing else to say on the topic.

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Chav

USA

Posted - 08/10/2020 :  16:25:49  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Frank Kocour

Well, I spoke too soon.

It all made sense until this.

quote:
Originally posted by Chav

My firm opinion is that US government mismanaged the crisis and continues to do so, which caused and causing unnecessary deaths. I have nothing else to say on the topic.





Frank, history will be the best judge. Now our job is to survive so we can look backwards several years from now.
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Chav

USA

Posted - 08/10/2020 :  19:36:11  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Frank Kocour


---------------

As I stated I do believe the Covid 19 is real and dangerous, but not a cause of human eradication. I think the virus was manufactured by the Chinese who lost control of it. Rather than bemoan it they quickly came to think of that as a serendipity and allowed it to run its course as a powerful control measure. My research more closely follows Bill's which leads me to similar conclusions. I do have a conspiracy theory in my head because there are plenty of non virtual reasons to tilt that way, IMO.

----------------

Hospitals are given more Medicare money for a patient who is diagnosed with Covid 19. Does the possibility (and incentive) for fraud exist?



Frank, two comments:
I don't know if the Chinese "manufactured" this, I don't think they are that smart. I think the virus is natural. Whether they had it in their labs and lost control of it, that is very possible. What's very disturbing though is that they let it slip through the cracks once they knew about the epidemic in China, this could have been very well intentional. I would let the government intelligence agencies investigate that, the whole world will be very interested to get an answer to this question. China benefits extremely from this world crisis.

Regarding the Medicare money... I am not very familiar with the hospitals finances, I think in general the hospitals are loosing money with COVID-19 patients, especially when they have to hold elective procedures. One COVID-19 ICU patient's care-cost can easily balloon in the millions due to long hospitalizations, expensive meds and multiple staff involved. But I can't tell you if this is compensated by the higher volume lower acuity cases. Still, there is no inventive by the hospitals to over-report deaths as COVID-19 related. As a physician I almost always know if COVID was the cause of death, in the rare cases I am in doubt, I let the medical examiner to make that call. I have never received any pressure from my hospital to report erroneous data, that is just not happening.

Edited by - Chav on 08/10/2020 19:52:30
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Skylark

USA

Posted - 08/10/2020 :  19:49:12  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
If the medical experts were making statements for distribution to the general public about Covid that were only "educated guesses", they should have kept such guesses to themselves or tell the public they were guessing. Totally irresponsible, and that just adds fuel to the fire undermining our opinion of what medical "expert" bodies in America are telling us.

I'm no super-fan of Trump, but I can see his bouts of sarcasm, even when CNN or other media groups do not or will not. He never seriously said to drink bleach....c'mon.
He does have communication issues though, and that has gotten him in much trouble. He should refrain from spouting off such thoughts in public.

Edited by - Skylark on 08/10/2020 20:07:42
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Chav

USA

Posted - 08/10/2020 :  21:03:29  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Skylark

If the medical experts were making statements for distribution to the general public about Covid that were only "educated guesses", they should have kept such guesses to themselves or tell the public they were guessing. Totally irresponsible, and that just adds fuel to the fire undermining our opinion of what medical "expert" bodies in America are telling us.

I'm no super-fan of Trump, but I can see his bouts of sarcasm, even when CNN or other media groups do not or will not. He never seriously said to drink bleach....c'mon.
He does have communication issues though, and that has gotten him in much trouble. He should refrain from spouting off such thoughts in public.




It is a novel virus, every guidance has a dose of guessing. Educated guess recommendation is better than no recommendation. It is not irresponsible. I am not under the impression that the experts screwed that bad, in fact they have been quite consistent, sometimes vague but still consistent. Could you give me an example of a recommendation that was incorrect so I can comment on it.

Edited by - Chav on 08/10/2020 21:04:08
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Skylark

USA

Posted - 08/11/2020 :  01:20:02  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
At the beginning it was broadly said that the virus only affected seniors, not healthy younger people. That was not immediately refuted. And in fact I don't believe much of anything was said before colleges went on spring break, so students and parents mostly thought they were not at risk if they traveled - right up to the day of departure. Much too late coming. And it was mostly politicians making the restrictions at that point, vaguely referring to medical expert "opinions". It all sounded like political cover to me.

Hospitals offloaded Covid patients into nursing homes. That should have been prevented by experts.

A number of times, there have been announcements that a medicine or vaccine has promise, or is effective against Covid, that we only need to fast track approval to use it, when in fact nothing is even close. Trump repeated some of those statements. Companies made a fast buck on the stock market, before any statements came from the experts to refute claims.

To me it is splitting hairs whether the medicine is only effective against narrow symptoms of the disease or against the full disease. The general public assumes the latter, when it is not immediately and loudly refuted or explained.

No admission that people who wear masks can still get Covid; it would not fit the narrative, so goes unsaid. Many people right to this moment think if they wear a mask, they are totally safe. You and I know better, Chav. But so many people are now believing they can go out anywhere any time, wearing a mask, and they won't get the virus. They aren't going to read the small print. They went out, a few rioters can even be seen wearing masks (but not social distancing), and therefore cases spiked anyway. I've seen no data breaking down infection cases between mask-wearers and non-wearers. Only blanket statements to wear them, which generates suspicions in my mind. Nothing is that clean-cut.

The 14-day quarantine..... that, turns out, was a guess, and still no general notice is being given that symptoms are showing up late in that span for some people and that the virus can be spread after the 14 day period.

I don't have a ready-made list of these things, but if I sat here long enough, I know I could remember more than this. However one thing I do want to say is the WHO is not a US entity, and it appeared they were the creators of much confusion around the world. US experts allowed them to do it, without refuting it, before our government officials repeated those things. Again I didn't prepare a list, but my mental scorecard tilts toward strong doubts about what the experts are/were saying.

I don't really need comments back about this, I've been reading about all of it, from many sources already.

My point is, after seeing your statement about educated guesses, Chav, the experts should only communicate within their own community before they go public with things that have not been proved and that may change. People may only hear about the first announcement, and not the follow-up. That creates misinformation.

As a coach for many years, I have lived a life where it is important not to over-promise and then risk not being able to deliver on that promise. You lose respect if you do it.

I expect the medical experts to be even more observant of the parameters and promises they set before they really know all the facts.


Edited by - Skylark on 08/11/2020 02:33:01
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Skylark

USA

Posted - 08/11/2020 :  01:55:18  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
One more thing before I go to sleep.... regarding the masks.

This is what happens in the real world, not in a hospital environment, but I think it will be of interest to you Chav, and maybe others, about unintended consequences.

I can report as a witness three separate instances in the past week of individuals discarding their used mask on the ground in public places.

It so happens that two instances were on a fast food parking lot near me, the other on the road in front of my home.

I don't know what the fast food place does when that happens. I did report it back to them.

But for me, in front of my home, I'm asking myself what should I do here?

I thought about calling the local ambulance/medical emergency service. Then I thought, is there a haz-mat company for this?

I can't just pick it up.... so I found a small stick nearby and hooked it on the end. Now what?

I ended up tossing it in the receptacle for our local trash removal service. Now I'm thinking, what do all these people do with their used masks? Like me, they're probably tossing them in their trash at home.

So, unlike the hospital environment where masks go into a more appropriate disposal channel, these masks end up in the landfills. Now how is that protecting our people from disease?

It's easy to make broad directions about health and safety, but the reality of results may be largely different than intended. That's my takeaway from these three occurrences. I now have one more reason to discredit the use of masks.

Edited by - Skylark on 08/11/2020 02:35:30
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Chav

USA

Posted - 08/11/2020 :  23:15:52  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I agree, there was a lot of confusion and still there are many unknowns. There was huge confusion introduced by politicians and particularly the president. All medical experts who were related to the government, including Dr.Fauci, had to soften their language and be politically correct, which generated lots of mixed messages. On the other hand the progressive media had bias towards sounding a loud alarm, which I personally believe was the right thing to do because it greatly helped with the awareness of the situation. Few days ago I said that the government missed the opportunity to act early and consistently and Frank said my statement made no sense. Here is what I mean, Trump lost an enormous opportunity to be the "hero" in this crisis, all he had to say (besides acting quicker) was: "yes, it is a bad crisis, we will get through this together with the help of the best scientists in the world", then embrace the crisis, ramp up the industry to produce testing equipment and medical equipment, support the people so they can stay home, open the country more gradually, lead by example by wearing mask, keep the course steady ... we would've been far far ahead. The resurge in FL and TX could have been avoided to a large degree. MI was #3 state by number of cases when the crisis started, now MI is recovering much better, masks are widely accepted and people are compliant with the rules, at least in southeast MI where I live.

Bellow are my comments, with the disclaimer that I am biased because I interpreted all info through my professional experience, I worked all the time and did not loose income, and I had the advantage of discussing directly with infections disease specialists and hospital administrators who were developing hospital policies based on CDC guidelines and latest research.

quote:
Originally posted by Skylark
At the beginning it was broadly said that the virus only affected seniors, not healthy younger people. That was not immediately refuted. And in fact I don't believe much of anything was said before colleges went on spring break, so students and parents mostly thought they were not at risk if they traveled - right up to the day of departure. Much too late coming. And it was mostly politicians making the restrictions at that point, vaguely referring to medical expert "opinions". It all sounded like political cover to me.


Yes, it was said that the seniors have the worst outcomes, not that it did not affect younger people, but the focus was on seniors. It was very evident for us from the very beginning that morbidly obese younger people (50+) with diabetes and hypertension are also very high risk category. Then the African American people were hit really bad, 70-80% of our ICU pts were African American, including healthy people. Also we had few white men in their 20's who barely made it, so even in March-April was clear that young people are not immune.

quote:
Originally posted by Skylark
Hospitals offloaded Covid patients into nursing homes. That should have been prevented by experts.


I don't have an impression that this was an issue. The nursing home crisis came from the nursing homes themselves, they were coronavirus incubators, but I am not sure they were seeded from the hospitals. Everybody sent from a hospital with COVID status would have been known and hence precautions would be followed.

quote:
Originally posted by Skylark
A number of times, there have been announcements that a medicine or vaccine has promise, or is effective against Covid, that we only need to fast track approval to use it, when in fact nothing is even close. Trump repeated some of those statements. Companies made a fast buck on the stock market, before any statements came from the experts to refute claims.


However wants fast track vaccines should buy a ticket to Russia. Liability of bad vaccine is too high in US. 12 months to market will be an exceptional speed, and I would wait even longer to get it myself, unless the hospital forces me. The current stock market doesn't make any sense to me anyway, I am loosing money cause I shorted it...

quote:
Originally posted by Skylark
To me it is splitting hairs whether the medicine is only effective against narrow symptoms of the disease or against the full disease. The general public assumes the latter, when it is not immediately and loudly refuted or explained.


There is no treatment for COVID-19 and no expert has said there is. The current management is supportive, meaning, the doctors sustain the life of the patient until the patient's immune system overcomes the infection. There are 3 therapies that improve survival: remdesivir (new antiviral), dexamethasone (old, blocks inflammatory response), convalescent plasma (antibodies to covid from a recovered donor).

quote:
Originally posted by Skylark
No admission that people who wear masks can still get Covid; it would not fit the narrative, so goes unsaid. Many people right to this moment think if they wear a mask, they are totally safe. You and I know better, Chav. But so many people are now believing they can go out anywhere any time, wearing a mask, and they won't get the virus. They aren't going to read the small print. They went out, a few rioters can even be seen wearing masks (but not social distancing), and therefore cases spiked anyway. I've seen no data breaking down infection cases between mask-wearers and non-wearers. Only blanket statements to wear them, which generates suspicions in my mind. Nothing is that clean-cut.


Masks are not 100% protective, but reduce the spread of the virus significantly to the point that we can achieve control. Wearing a mask by everybody helps drive down the number of infections on population level. Wearing a mask properly along with social distancing, and washing hands helps avoiding the virus on individual level. It is always easier to have KISS messages (the fine print is for the more intelligent people): wear a mask! Such simple message, may not protect everybody, but as a whole the society will do better.

quote:
Originally posted by Skylark
The 14-day quarantine..... that, turns out, was a guess, and still no general notice is being given that symptoms are showing up late in that span for some people and that the virus can be spread after the 14 day period.


14-day quarantine is anther simplified (for easy following) policy. Long enough for majority of the patients to stop spreading the virus, not too long to cause unnecessary delay of getting people back to their life.

quote:
Originally posted by Skylark
I don't have a ready-made list of these things, but if I sat here long enough, I know I could remember more than this. However one thing I do want to say is the WHO is not a US entity, and it appeared they were the creators of much confusion around the world. US experts allowed them to do it, without refuting it, before our government officials repeated those things. Again I didn't prepare a list, but my mental scorecard tilts toward strong doubts about what the experts are/were saying.


Again, nobody knew exactly what to do, it is a novel virus, science needs time for observation and analyzing data. It took centuries for the people to realize that microorganisms cause variety of disease. It takes months now to characterize the behavior of novel virus, we have never been better than we are now. We should take everything in perspective.

quote:
Originally posted by Skylark
I don't really need comments back about this, I've been reading about all of it, from many sources already.


It lets me look trough your point of view and understand how non medical people see these issues.

quote:
Originally posted by Skylark
My point is, after seeing your statement about educated guesses, Chav, the experts should only communicate within their own community before they go public with things that have not been proved and that may change. People may only hear about the first announcement, and not the follow-up. That creates misinformation.


Again, lack of any guidance is worse than let's say 70% accurate guidance. Here is where an influencer (such as the president) would play a huge role. Simple guidance that everyone follows + detailed guidelines for businesses, hospitals and schools. A national strategy is necessary because we cannot control the borders between states. Passing all responsibilities to the states is a recipe for prolonged and painful recovery. See, this is why China did well, because they can force their people to comply. I am not saying that US should be China, but the president had such an unique opportunity to unite the nation ... the democrats were already compliant with the restrictions the virus came with, if he only brought the republicans on board ... oh, well. He will have hell of a hard time in November...

quote:
Originally posted by Skylark
As a coach for many years, I have lived a life where it is important not to over-promise and then risk not being able to deliver on that promise. You lose respect if you do it.


Exactly. But I don't think the experts overpromised, on the other hand the government is overpromising every day.

quote:
Originally posted by Skylark
I expect the medical experts to be even more observant of the parameters and promises they set before they really know all the facts.


Disagree, in this crisis experts cannot wait months to observe and then come up with strategy. We still don't know all facts. That's why there is huge debate about the schools opening.

Finally, you can throw away used masks in the garbage, the virus dies in few days (slower of faster depending on the surface and the environment), moreover I believe the contact transmission is overrated. Even if you touch someone else's mask, just wash your hands with soap and water.

Edited by - Chav on 08/12/2020 00:00:14
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Chav

USA

Posted - 08/12/2020 :  00:04:04  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Frank Kocour

Well, I spoke too soon.

It all made sense until this.

quote:
Originally posted by Chav

My firm opinion is that US government mismanaged the crisis and continues to do so, which caused and causing unnecessary deaths. I have nothing else to say on the topic.





Frank, you were right ... I had a lot more to say on the topic

Edited by - Chav on 08/12/2020 00:06:22
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Skylark

USA

Posted - 08/12/2020 :  01:22:35  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I wasn't intending to mean I wanted the drugs fast tracked.... I meant that the response of medical experts should have been more immediate so that people didn't get the wrong idea.

There was a long enough gap, I spoke with people later the same day about one of the stories, and it wasn't refuted until the following day. In the meantime, Trump also repeated it.... and some people sold stock for a big gain.
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Skylark

USA

Posted - 08/12/2020 :  01:30:08  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I think you still misunderstand my point about knowing the facts first.

I'm talking about what gets released to the public, and that should be very well defined facts, not loose opinion.

Within the medical chain, private secure communication can be happening in the meantime.
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Skylark

USA

Posted - 08/12/2020 :  01:44:56  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
We went round and round, Chav. I still have my view, you have yours. No problem with that, IMO.

But as an overview..... we need to get past this much faster than I think the medical experts want it to.

I am watching businesses close, or drastically shorten hours because people fear going out or working with others.

(Strangely, they still go out for recreation, but not into stores.
Riding ATVs, motorcycles, 4WD off-roading, a few of my neighbors in their back yard target shooting at all hours, that type stuff is taking the place of going to work here)

Supply of manufactured goods is visibly drying up. More of those retail businesses will close soon, too....if you have nothing to sell you close up!

We had a power outage here yesterday. A basic service, some citizens need power for medical equipment in their home. It took 4 hours to get it back even though it was a simple repair, because the power company has laid off repair crews, so there were not enough available to get to our area.

I'm more of a risk taker I suppose, but if we let this drag on....we are in for a generation of pain.

My parents and grandparents lived through the Great Depression. They told me stories years ago that I still recall. The situation at the beginning of that was much the same as I'm seeing right now. Many people still had money, but there was nothing to buy. Other people had lost just about everything... homeless. No one thought it would last, but it did.

I think we have good cause to be concerned if we don't speed up this process soon. We can't keep hiding to avoid it.

End of my thoughts.

Edited by - Skylark on 08/12/2020 02:12:30
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Chav

USA

Posted - 08/12/2020 :  03:10:56  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Bill, I view this as a healthcare crisis. For me preserving life is much more important than preserving the economy. Most medical experts have similar goals. The medical experts are not stock market strategists to tell the market participants what news has legs. I don't understand why you are even talking about stocks here.

When there are no facts and data yet, we extrapolate conclusions from prior knowledge and experience (I called it "educated guess", you called it "loose opinion"), it is not perfect but it is better than following gut-feelings. Sorry, I don't understand what you mean by "I think you still misunderstand my point about knowing the facts first".

If this crisis was handled like NY did + ramped testing capacity nationwide, US would be opening right now with ability to mass test and trace focuses of virus resurgence. That's why medical experts are saying that control of the virus is the pathway to getting the economy on track. What do we have? A mess. So ideas like "herd immunity" and "poor advice from the experts" are floating around when the truth is incompetent governing (sorry Frank).

The question is what to do now? I don't know. We should embrace for painful long recovery. Let me tell you, why the herd immunity will never work practically, because not 100% of the population wants to participate. There is a large group of people who are scared and listening to the medical experts. They will continue to wear masks and participate in social distancing, and the more tragedy is out there, the more scared people will be. The second unknown is how long the natural immunity lasts, so far the opinion is that it lasts only for several months. Massive vaccination is the way out of this mess, and the way to build herd immunity is through a vaccine, however there is a big "but" ... if the vaccine works. Dying from COVID, or even spending a day in the ICU, is not worth the risk even for "risk takers". As I said before one has to see it to believe it. The US will overcome the economic downturn, no question about it. I'm still an optimist that an year from now the covid situation will be much better.

Just saw your latest redaction. We did hide to solve the problem, not to avoid it. It only partially worked because is was not done right but bought us time to build capacities and understand the problem. Now things are opening, and we can at least partially return to our lives with the limitations the virus is imposing. Wearing masks is a small price to pay for restoring our liberties, moreover it will be for limited time. Communities with low spread of the virus, don't even need to wear masks if they have rapid testing and reliable tracing. My sister was recently in Austria, they don't wear masks ...

Airborne?
new article http://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/a-smoking-gun-infectious-coronavirus-retrieved-from-hospital-air/ar-BB17PM2r?ocid=ientp

Edited by - Chav on 08/12/2020 04:33:26
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Skylark

USA

Posted - 08/12/2020 :  07:42:01  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I am more interested in the on-going livelihood that provides for the families of the 97% than the 3%! And that's why we are so far apart. I view this like it's a war, now. We have to be more aggressive and fight back, don't be overrun playing only defense. Overwhelm it where it is weakest, if you will.

Don't get me wrong, I'm glad you are driven to knock this thing out your way. I wouldn't want my own doctor not caring if I survive or not.

But I'm older, and I have more history to base my thinking on. In the flu epidemic a century ago, a branch of my ancestry lost 5 siblings under the age of 10 (they were a large family, three children survived). So it isn't that I'm callous, I heard sad stories about it many times. Those three survivors lived long lives afterward. They moved on from it, had families of their own, just as we will have to today and into the future I think. That's the bigger picture I see right now, when I say we can't wait for cures that may never come.

I can't worry too much about the people who wish to live their life in fear, hiding even after told they don't need to. That mentality doesn't move us forward. So they fall behind if they don't wish to participate with the herd.

But when, eventually, the 97% people realize the 6-foot social distancing, the varying effectiveness of masks, the 14-day quarantine that was too short, and all the plexiglas and fastidious cleaning wasn't really the answer.... there will be a backlash. They will ask hard questions why we were told we had to sacrifice as an experiment. That's what I see coming, when the dust clears.

Yes, that link on airborne transmission is about the study I believe I read a week or more ago. As I said previously I disbelieve the likelihood that an infected person can transmit the virus to 200 people in a room who never got within 6 feet of that infected person. It has got to be airborne, and in recirculated air throughout the room. And small droplets are more likely to pass around or through normal masks in the air we breathe.

The comment in the story about ultra-violet light in hospital air filtration systems intrigues me. Does it work against virus? Probably not, but still interesting.

Lol, I was trying to back off this topic, but you got me going one more time!


Edited by - Skylark on 08/12/2020 07:48:14
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Frank Kocour

USA

Posted - 08/12/2020 :  09:09:53  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Chav, when this string began I was impressed by the way both sides of the virus argument was presented by yourself and by Bill. However, as it continues another side is coming out of you that wasn't there in the beginning. More and more it appears that you are politically motivated, as is much of the country right now - not so curiously since the elections are drawing near.

You seem to be aware of many facts and figures within your own health community, but I have my doubts about the knowledge you rely on for your assessment of the government's (read "Trump's) handling of the country.

In the beginning of the virus pandemic the Dems were totally against the closing of the borders. U.S. companies, at Trump's urging, started producing new ventilators and refurbishing/converting others to the point where New York enjoyed a surplus of them and hoarded them in the name of taking precautions for the future when other states could have used them.

Trump is following a cautious path to reopen the states gradually and is totally against mass shut-in compliance. He has taken risks in an attempt to balance the economy with the effects of the virus - pretty difficult to get totally right as there are no certainties. That being said - There are plenty of armchair quarterbacks these days whose vision is 20/20 and who keep changing their solutions to stay that way.

Trying to figure out why you shorted Pharma stock.

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