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Chav

USA

Posted - 08/12/2020 :  09:43:01  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Frank, we are obviously watching different news channels, and the history of events in my mind is very different. Yes, I made a political statements because of reasons i mentioned above, which is pointless to repeat. I didn’t say I shorted the pharma, I said I shorted the market. I am also a risk taker and I made a mistake. Since my wife is fully invested on the long side, I made risk management bet for the short side largely because I was biased by the severity of the crisis. Speaking about the Covid and politics however, my wife and I are on the same page and that keeps the union strong. She is a smart woman, pediatric pulmonologist and researcher, if I ask her to read this discussion, she will ask me “why are you wasting your time?”.

Edited by - Chav on 08/12/2020 09:46:39
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Frank Kocour

USA

Posted - 08/12/2020 :  11:55:15  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Yes, I did read you comment about shorting the market wrong. Thanks for clearing that up.

Glad to hear that you and your wife are on the same page. Marriage is a series of compromises which is difficult enough. There would be nothing worse than living with a person who has emphatic, diametrically opposed views of the same subject. Notably politics.

Ugh, I shudder at the thought.

quote:
Originally posted by Chav

Frank, we are obviously watching different news channels, and the history of events in my mind is very different. Yes, I made a political statements because of reasons i mentioned above, which is pointless to repeat. I didn’t say I shorted the pharma, I said I shorted the market. I am also a risk taker and I made a mistake. Since my wife is fully invested on the long side, I made risk management bet for the short side largely because I was biased by the severity of the crisis. Speaking about the Covid and politics however, my wife and I are on the same page and that keeps the union strong. She is a smart woman, pediatric pulmonologist and researcher, if I ask her to read this discussion, she will ask me “why are you wasting your time?”.

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Skylark

USA

Posted - 08/12/2020 :  22:06:12  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
One thing I've learned in the past three or four years, Chav. An old dog learning a new trick analogy perhaps that helps me, and it might be of benefit to you and others. Stop watching the "channels"!

If there is one reason and only one allowed, biased media is the single biggest reason we as a country are now so divided. It tops the list. Facts don't matter. Our "free press" is not averse to lying. They sound like pre-schoolers, to me, who only want the approval of their "clique". I wonder how they get their job! Rhetorical question; I already know how.

Watch the actual news briefings yourself, unfiltered, not the summaries and stories of the newscasters afterward. Ignore those. I really wish the White House would put out full written explanations before the briefings for people to read. Then stop taking questions from reporters afterward, who then twist things. Controls the message better that way. You will not be so much misled, if you invest your own time to get the unfiltered truth.

In the past couple days, "Hillary" and "Pelosi-Schumer" (I call the latter one person, oftentimes, since those two never have an independent thought, and Schumer can only read his "thoughts" from a paper looking down at his hands anyway), my Democratic leaders have come out saying Trump is dead set on ending Social Security/Medicare. What I saw was only a short-term plan to keep money in the economy and in people's pocket rather than have the government hold it until you file your taxes next year. But unfortunately, I have not seen all the unfiltered Trump video yet (hope it exists). I don't really agree with Trump deferring the payroll taxes, but that doesn't mean he is doing it to kill off those programs. And in truth, he doesn't have the power anyway, we elect Congress to make those laws. Your vote on Congressional offices will be more important on this issue, not the vote for President. But the media is making it all about Trump. Stay away from their bias.

Today, one of our local and few remaining large-employment manufacturing plants told all its workers to sign up for unemployment. They had been short-shifting, but now they cannot even do that. Spokesperson said they have no idea when they will be able to, or even if, they will re-open. So in this vicinity, our recession of 2019 is on the verge of deeper harm to people. This counts to me far more than the 3%, sorry to say. We've got to re-open in full. Then dial back in spots, where needed, but not entire States.

CNN and others have no real desire to report on this underlying employment weakness in their headlines, until they have seen a change in the White House. Much of the higher employment figures lately in the news are due to highway construction projects long overdue, that are only temporary. Then what? Some restaurant hiring that happened has already been reversed by renewal and in many cases increased public gathering restrictions put into place due to Covid. Factories are closing, or running at drastically reduced production, to avoid legal risks. The government, already too far in debt, is borrowing massively to pay out relief to businesses and individuals. Inflation is going to eat us fixed-incomers alive, because there is very little real income in the system to tax. But the priorities of the media ignore all of that right now. We need to ignore them!


Edited by - Skylark on 08/13/2020 00:57:58
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Chav

USA

Posted - 08/13/2020 :  01:35:10  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Thanks for the advice Bill. Frank, good talking to you too. This conversation took wrong turn into politics, and I recognize my responsibility in that regard. It is probably time to end it. Let's talk cars next. How about Joe Biden's '67 C2? ... Just kidding

Edited by - Chav on 08/13/2020 01:37:27
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Skylark

USA

Posted - 08/13/2020 :  01:48:22  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Just great.... the latest Fauci quotes!
August 12, 2020

"The chances of it [a vaccine] being 98% are not great. Which means you must never abandon the public-health approach."

To me, that means he expects: Masks forever!

Fauci has said he was hopeful that a coronavirus vaccine could be developed by early 2021, but has previously said it’s unlikely that a vaccine will deliver 100% immunity; he said the best realistic outcome, based on other vaccines, would be 70% to 75% effective.

To me, that means: If you think a vaccine is the answer and after that we're in the clear...... think again!

People we are in a fight for freedom here, it's not just about a short-term health scare. We need someone other than Fauci as the top adviser, someone with a wider viewpoint and who won't spread fear, after the election.

Voting and knowing issues is very important right now, but yes, I'd like to get back to cars.


Edited by - Skylark on 08/13/2020 07:59:20
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Chav

USA

Posted - 08/13/2020 :  04:34:13  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I disagree with your epidemiology analysis but no matter what I say will not change your opinion a bit, hence it is not worth the effort.
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Skylark

USA

Posted - 08/13/2020 :  07:35:00  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
These quotes and previous statements (above) came directly from an independent source, not any of the networks.

never abandon = forever
70-75% effective = 25-30% will still get Covid
(even if we get the vaccine and if it is ever available; that's not good)

fairly clear to most of us what his statement is saying, not a difficult analysis

if Fauci means something else, he should say something else, not equivocate; the 70-75% effectiveness figure is yet another guess he tosses out; as I've said, I think he has a 10-year agenda and we need someone with a better plan

but yes, we have beaten this to death now....
unless there is new news, I'd like to give it a rest

Edited by - Skylark on 08/13/2020 08:00:30
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Chav

USA

Posted - 08/13/2020 :  09:19:26  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Bill, I don’t understand why is hard to understand that any other infectious diseases expert will be telling us the same thing until the vaccine is out there and data is collected. Nobody can predict how successful a vaccine could be. This is medicine, there is no calculation for this. Coronaviruses are notoriously difficult to treat with vaccines. However several new approaches are being employed in development of a novel vaccine. What you want to hear, cannot come from a respected scientist, but can come from a politician. Biden will follow the science experts, Trump is your man to implement the natural selection strategy, which may be also scientific but cruel and outdated science. The medical community will not support such approach because we are wired in different way and we have to deal with the consequences of higher morbidity and mortality. Have you calculated the cost of medical management of 100K or 500K or 1M ICU patients? The cost of a single Covid patient care can easily balloon to 100 thousand dollars per month. And many of them will spent more than 1 month in ICU. Have considered that even with natural infections there may be Covid reinfections and people can get sick over and over again. How about mutations? Coronaviruses are here to stay, how about if next year we have COVID-21 that kills 5% and kills kids. Now is the time to develop vaccine technologies and antivirals. The problem is extremely complex, and it is not going to be solved by people who have no expertise in multiple medical fields. If Trump wins in November, he will replace Dr. Fauci with a loyalist who will be telling you exactly what you want to hear. I am not looking forward for that future.

I worked last 5 nights, what’s your excuse not to sleep?
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Skylark

USA

Posted - 08/13/2020 :  09:49:06  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I understand scientific study.... I was a number cruncher, but I worked in engineering for 21 years of my career at Ford. What I'm trying to communicate (not very well I guess) is that there are two channels here that need to be handled differently. One: within the medical community (to hospitals, doctors and researchers). Two: the other is to the general public.

What he is saying is alright for your ears. But he doesn't have one ounce of common sense when it comes to communicating with the rest of us. He has been a bureaucrat all his life, insulated from people I think. Experts are assumed to know, not guess.....by people who do not understand professional study. If he had just said we don't know what we don't know, that would be the best way to not under or over promise to the general public. That's not what I call being political, I call that being honest. And "never abandon" means just that to the same people. It spreads fear on one hand, and animosity on the other....because there is a large group of people on both sides of this thing, particularly over the masks.

I also understand costs and financials. They are not linear. Hate to state it this way because it may be interpreted as callous, but if you have a million patients instead of 100,000 then your cost/patient should be going down drastically. However, I don't look at this as a cost of treatment thing, I'm concerned about the livelihoods of the 97% who don't get the virus. Fauci is only concerned about the 3%. It's oil and water. I feel we need someone in his chair who considers the entire 100% spectrum. And someone who knows when to remain quiet until the right time.

As a coach, I couldn't be constantly criticizing players, I may have wanted to with certain teams, but I had to pick the right moments. You lose them, if you feel a need to be talking all the time. Fauci is being put in front of microphones now all the time and thinks he needs to say something every time. He might even have some celebrity syndrome, with so much media around him. A few "no comment"s would be nice sometimes, imo.

I wondered why you were here all the time too!
My body clock got turned all around after I retired, then stopped coaching too, and I no longer get up to an alarm! Now, I sleep a few hours when I need it.... do my chores and then spend the rest of my waking hours looking at Covid stories (joke!).

Edited by - Skylark on 08/13/2020 10:16:35
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Chav

USA

Posted - 08/13/2020 :  23:30:30  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Doing my 6th night shift, busy shift, will reply later ...
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Skylark

USA

Posted - 08/14/2020 :  00:31:45  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
lol....no need! if you reply....I might be feel a need to compose another one in response!

Sixth straight night on! ....
you need to get some Mountain Dew to stay alert!

I have a John Wayne movie queued up, The Alamo. I'd rather watch it than debate further!
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Chav

USA

Posted - 08/15/2020 :  00:18:51  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Two channels of communications? No, there are different ways of interpretation. We have access to the same information but process it differently based on prejudice, political and professional bias, prior knowledge and experience.

IMHO, you are wrong about Dr.Fauci, you don't trust him, what is the chance you are going to trust me who trusts him? Dr. Fauci has been very consistent in telling the truth for this crisis. "bureaucrat all his life, insulated from people", he has the best people skills from all the "coronavirus task force". I have not studied his biography to argue how much bureaucrat he is, but he has dedicated his life to science and medicine and what he is doing at his age deserves only respect. "Celebrity"? ... yes, nothing wrong with that. He is beating Trump in his own game, becoming a "celebrity". His "celebrity" status is so far his best defense of being still on the job. Masks in the current situation is no-brained for me, so I won't argue further about this.

"but if you have a million patients instead of 100,000 then your cost/patient should be going down drastically". OMG, Bill, these are not an iphones, this are human lifes ... maybe you will be right if you start shooting every patient who needs a ventilator to reduce cost. See, this is why this conversation is so unproductive for me, because you don't trust me in my field of expertise. I started replying to this thread only to give different perspective to this crisis. I see the tragedy of these people and their families every day I go to work. I would recommend actually watching some of these patient's stories on CNN, they are true stories ... I respect your perspective of the economic pain in your community but unfortunately the solution is not letting this virus unleashed, this is the time when the politicians have to step in ... Dr.Fauci is not the problem in the poor handling of this crisis.

Edited by - Chav on 08/15/2020 00:19:41
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Skylark

USA

Posted - 08/15/2020 :  06:49:26  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Interpretation and guessing....is the foundation of the misinformation in all of this - and those 2 things have put much of the public in fear, while just as many ignore the guidelines because they saw the results of following them did not end the sickness. You don't make much of an argument in support of better communication. Yes, everyone needs to make up their own minds based on the factors you listed, but that does not say it's ok to talk about guesses (educated or not) to people who do not know they are guesses. Experts must speak to their audience better, I will not back away from that. The public must know what are guesses and what are facts. Fauci is not consistent in how he talks about things to the public, sometimes qualifying his statements to give him room to maneuver while at other times being blunt. I can see it, and I can tell when he does it because I have some grasp now of what's happening.

I've put in time and study to uncover how far off these expert-recommended prevention measures have been. Most people do not realize those errors, and I think that might have something to do with why we have not gotten this thing under control yet. One factor especially troubles me, and that is the finding that a 14-day quarantine is not long enough to prevent spreading the virus, and yet the experts have not changed the 14-day guideline. And a 2nd possible factor, airborne transmission is not getting enough recognition as a possible reason the other things haven't worked. People may need to be cleaning air and climate-control distribution systems, but nothing much is being said about it.

I qualified my cost/patient remark before putting it out there, Chav, it was only a response to what you said previously anyway, and I have been very clear that I am not callous about the individual sufferings, including bringing in my own family experiences with the Spanish flu, and my recent 5-week illness that may have been Covid. You did not separate the two points, on cost and empathy, and in tying them together you miss the point, which was that you yourself were using cost as a justification for keeping the public out of hospitals....not me.

[also your example of "shooting patients who need ventilators", I know you said it in sarcasm, but that would not reduce cost (just the opposite happens but I won't go into details)]

No matter how tough it looks from the inside of a hospital environment, the reality outside it is this thing is rare. None of this long discussion has changed that basic fact. Something like 20% who are exposed develop symptoms (per a controlled Korean study), and your own 10% figure being the number who have serious illness with it, appears to result in only 2% of population that likely will die, so the rest either get sick and recover or don't even get infected. I've been calling the mortality rate 3% conservatively based on Bing data collected from US hospitals, and 97% who need to get back to the economy. We can't expect perfection before we allow people to pursue their livelihoods and provide for their families. I'm not saying I ignore the pain and suffering, I am saying we have to accept some. We can't operate businesses and factories at anything near full capacity if we prioritize social distancing and masks over basic cleanliness and effective pre-screening before people can come into the daily work environment. It was thought that masks and plexiglas would take the place of those things, but it didn't. And either way, flattening the curve or herd immunity, about the same number of people will die. So all these restrictions if left in place will have caused more pain, of a different type including hunger, to a larger segment of our people. I don't want that, and don't apologize for my position given the facts as I now have them. Give me more facts, I can adjust my mindset. We need our economy back, now!

But this situation is so analogous to war, where some people want to sit back and allow others to do the fighting. I'm not one to sit on the sidelines.... Fauci's policies are too defensive, and if not stopped we will be in an economic calamity the likes of which will make the Great Depression seem like a minor blip.

Europe is looking at the US, hoping we don't drag our feet too long. Business experts over there see mass bankruptcy coming if we don't get our US economy in recovery soon and quickly. We've only seen a few bankruptcies because of Covid so far, companies that were weak coming into this, but we're on the verge of many more.

Edited by - Skylark on 08/16/2020 07:22:24
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Chav

USA

Posted - 08/15/2020 :  10:49:24  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Bill, I have nothing else to say, if there is anything else healthcare-wise I may be able to clarify in your future research please let me know.
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Skylark

USA

Posted - 08/15/2020 :  17:27:28  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
We share a good hobby, this diecast site, and I'm glad to know you.
We can move on from this other stuff.

Edited by - Skylark on 08/16/2020 07:26:36
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